Thursday, November 30, 2006

What is your prediction as to who will win the Liberal leadership?

I think Iggy will win the first ballot with Rae coming a close second, and Dion and Kennedy going for either third and fourth.. Dryden, Brison, Hall Findlay and Volpe will fall off the ballot. Dion and Kennedy will combine against the two front-runners. Likely Dion will defer to Kennedy. Much of the support of the four ("anyone but Iggy") who won't be on the second ballot will go to Kennedy. Who knows? Perhaps Gerard Kennedy is the guy to watch.

The Libs like to alternate between English and French leaders. That would suggest Dion has a chance. But perhaps Martin's brief and diastrous stint as leader doesn't count. Furthermore, though he is English, he did come from Quebec.