Why do the Liberal fortunes seem to be rising in the polls while the Conservative are sinking? My hunch is because the Conservatives have forgotten who they are. Conservatives' enduring strength is conservativism. The prototype of conservatives who know how to win was President Ronald Reagan. He offered tough medicine to the American people but did so with sincerity and a smile while offering hope, and while remaining conservative. Conservative (Republican) fortunes in the USA have flagged since George Bush Sr. raised taxes after his "read my lips" promise.
What I think I'm hearing from the present day Conservative Party of Canada, while they tack to the centre, is, "You had better vote for us because things will only be worse under the Liberals or NDP." Why they consider grabbing the centre to be a good idea is a question they ought to ask of John Tory or Ernie Eves! Mike Harris was not a warm and cuddly premier but at least he knew what it was to be a conservative.
Having said that, I still think the Conservatives will eke out a win, a minority or, possibly, a razor thin majority. I don't think the Liberals can win, at least not a majority. To win a majority they'd have to grow their share of seats from 36 (of the 2011 308 seats) to 170 (of the 2015 338 seats). They will win the 25 or so Atlantic seats, but can they win 50 in Quebec, 50 in Ontario, and 45 in the West? I doubt it.
Although Justin Trudeau is probably a nice guy to chat with at a BBQ and share a couple of IPAs with, once most Canadians are in the voter's booth they'll likely not vote for someone who is more noted for his good looks than for his grasp on policy. I just wish that the CPC would remain more true to conservative policy, social and fiscal.